Amusing musings about life and sports, which are not as different as you might think.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

NFL Preview 2009 -- NFC

I've had a lot on my mind lately. So much in fact that I am taking a break from it and am going to get away from it all for a little bit. So, you may ask, what are you going to do with this new found time? Well I'm glad you asked. I am going to preview the upcoming NFL season division by division, team by team. I'll tell you what's good, what's bad, and how each team will finish. So without further adieu.........

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers -- 10-6

The Packers are a team that is very much under the radar this year. The only time that they are going to get super media coverage is when Brett Favre and the Vikings come to town, which will be the ultimate in "player vs. former team" matchups.

What's good: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers QB busted out in a big way in his first season as a starter. He did everything right and has played incredibly well in the preseason. He just might establish himself as the best QB in the NFC this season.

What's bad: The running game. Ryan Grant came out of nowhere two years ago to help lead the Packers to the NFC championship game. Actually, the running game isn't exactly bad, it's just a question mark. Grant needs to return to his 1300 yard form this season so that there isn't so much pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

What to watch: The defense. The Packers switch to the 3-4 scheme of new coordinator Dom Capers has been much publicized, including the transition of Pro Bowler Aaron Kampman from defensive end to linebacker. If that transition goes as planned the Packers defense should be a solid unit.

2. Minnesota Vikings -- 10-6

Obviously the story in Minnesota this season is Brett Favre and whether he is the missing piece to the puzzle. While my childhood hero is a big name and will sell thousands of tickets and jerseys I'm not convinced that he is a better option than Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson. More on that shortly.

What's good: The running game. Adrian Peterson is the NFL's best running back and Chester Taylor is a solid spell back. The offensive line is also good and that running game will be hard to stop.

What's bad: The team chemistry. The Favre saga has divided the Vikings lockerroom. They are going to all have to get on the same page if this is going to work. If Favre comes out and throws three picks in the first game the Vikings won't stand a chance this season.

What to watch: The Favre saga. Two years ago Brett Favre put in one of the hardest offseasons of work in his career. The result? One of his best seasons, a 13-3 record, and a trip to the NFC title game. Last year he had no offseason workouts, threw as many INTs as he did TDs and flopped in December. This year he got an even later start. You tell me what's going to happen.

3. Chicago Bears -- 9-7

The most interseting thing the Bears did this offseason was make a blockbuster trade for the starry Jay Cutler. The last time the Bears had a QB witht his clout was Sid Luckman. That was also in the 1940s.

What's good: Matt Forte. The Bears running back put together an outstanding rookie season last year. I think he's only going to get better.

What's bad: The receivers. Quick, name a receiver for the Bears. That's what I thought.

What to watch: Who is Jay Cutler going to throw to? Devin Hester? Well yeah, but Hester is not exactly Randy Moss. I'd expect tight end Greg Olsen to get the majority of Cutlers passes thrown his way.

4. Detroit Lions -- 3-13

The Lions had the best worst season in NFL history last year going 0-16. They can only go up from here. And they will.

What's good: Hope. After a winless season last year, hope is about all the Lions have. Kevin Smith is a pretty good running back and Calvin Johnson is a stud at receiver. After that there's not much good to talk about. So the fact that the Lions can't get any worse has to be a good thing right?

What's bad: Everything.

What to watch: Matthew Stafford. The first overall pick from Georgia will likely be starting sooner rather than later. I would expect him to be starting by midseason. It'll be interesting to see how much he develops in his rookie year.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons -- 11-5

The Falcons had a surprising season last year. Michael Turner proved to be a beast at running back and then rookie Matt Ryan was proficient in the offense. Roddy White also had a coming out party (have to give a shout out to my fellow UAB Blazer).

What's good: The atmosphere. Before last season the Falcons were among the NFL's laughing stock. Michael Vick left the franchise in shambles. Now after last season they have a winning attitude, a model citizen to lead the team at QB, and a real chance to do some damage in the NFC this year.

What's bad: The pass defense. I can only name one member of the Falcons secondary, that being Arkansas alum Chris Houston. And he's not really a lock down corner.

What to watch: Tony Gonzalez. The all pro tight end finally got his wish and got out of Kansas City to play for a playoff contender. He provides a safety net for Matt Ryan and should make an already solid offense that much better.

2. New Orleans Saints -- 10-6

The Saints have what is maybe the most prolific passing game in the NFL. If Drew Brees had Patriots-like receivers then there is no doubt in my mind he would shatter all of Tom Brady's records. This pick may surprise some people, but I'll tell you why it will happen shortly.

What's good: The passing game. The Saints have the NFC's best passer in Drew Brees. Brees flirted with Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record last year, mainly because they couldn't run the ball. Then again neither could Marino's Dolphins teams.

What's bad: The defense. Why did the Saints passing game put up such great numbers last year? Because they were always playing from behind.

What to watch: History. Since 2002 the team that finished last in the NFC South has made the playoffs the next year. The Falcons did it last year. The Saints will do it this year. Why? Just because.

3. Carolina Panthers -- 9-7

The Panthers were one of the NFC's best teams a year ago as DeAngelo Williams and then rookie Jonathan Stewart provided a two headed monster in the backfield.

What's good: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Arguably the best running back duo in the NFL Williams and Stewart provide constant headaches for defensive coordinators.

What's bad: Inconsistency. Jake Delhomme is usually really good or really bad. The Panthers need him to be really good if they want to succeed. He'll be wishy washy again and that will hurt the Panthers.

What to watch: Jon Fox. The Panthers coach has gotten close several times but has never been able to get to the top. If he can't do it this year his seat might get much hotter.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 6-10

The Bucs aren't really a threat to anybody this year. The defense is really their only strength.

What's good: Ronde Barber. The Bucs cornerback has been a staple of the franchise for more than a decade. He'll be good again this year.

What's bad: The wideouts. They're top two guys are Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall. The former is a George Clooney film and the latter sounds like some kind of oven cleaner.

What to watch: The running backs. They have three pretty good ones in Cadillac Williams, Ernest Graham, and newly acquired Derrick Ward. Those guys should be able to keep thim in the game. On another completely random note, when will see rookie QB Josh Freeman? Probably next year.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles -- 11-5

Last year the Eagles came out of nowhere to reach the NFC Championship game. This year they are considered among many to be the favorites to reach the Super Bowl.

What's good: Speed. Wide receivers Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are two of the fastest in the game and are great after the catch. Throw Michael Vick into the mix and speed becomes a super strength of the Eagles.

What's bad: No go to guy. The Eagles have some good wideouts but they are all speedy and small. They lack a bigger possession receiver and they probably need one.

What to watch: Michael Vick. This is a no-brainer. If Vick comes out and is the Vick of old then the Eagles will be a force to be reckoned with. If he doesn't have the burst he used to then he won't be much help. He won't hurt them, but he won't help them either.

2. Dallas Cowboys -- 10-6

Last season Dallas flopped down the stretch. The Roy Williams trade didn't do what it was intended to do, Tony Romo missed a month, and Dallas missed the playoffs.

What's good: Tony Romo. Romo has alot of critics but I am not one of them. I think that he is going to be exponentially better this season because he doesn't have to be the pacifier in Terrell Owens's mouth.

What's bad: The wideouts. While TO whined alot he was the best wide receiver the 'Boys had. They don't need TO but they need another receiver who plays like him.

What to watch: Less is more. Like I said before Tony Romo should be much more relaxed this season. He should be able to scan the entire field and throw it to whoever is open now that he doesn't have to try to please TO.

3. New York Giants -- 8-8

The Giants were great last year. Then Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg.

What's good: The defensive line. Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck serve as two of the best DEs in the game. With Osi back and healthy the Giants pass rush will be brutal for opposing tackles.

What's bad: Pass catchers. Who on earth is Eli Manning going to throw the ball to? The Giants WR corps is made up of 6 number three receivers. Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, David Tyree, Sinorice Moss, Dominik Hixon. How many of those guys do you want on your fantasy team?

What to watch: Eli Manning. How good is he without Plaxico Burress? We will find out.

4. Washington Redskins -- 6-10

The Redskins are always one of those teams that everybody thinks is going to do well but then flops. Last year they started 6-2. Then they missed the playoffs.

What's good: Chris Cooley. Cooley is probably the Redskins' best weapon. He can lineup in a variety of places and do a variety of things.

What's bad: Jason Campbell. Don't get me wrong, I love Jason Campbell and what he did for my Auburn Tigers in 2004, but he has not lived up to the hype since coming to the NFL. You know he was drafted one pick behind Aaron Rodgers? He has not lived up to his first round billing.

What to watch.: Jason Campbell. If he doesn't play well this year the Redskins may start looking for another QB.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks -- 9-7

I know you're thinking "WHAT?! How can he not pick the Cardinals and Larry Fitzgerald?" Several reasons I like the 'Hawks. 1) Matt Hasselbeck is healthy; 2) T.J. Houshmanzadeh has arrived; 3) Jim Mora Jr. has something to prove; 4) The defense is good; 5) Nice trio of running backs [Julius Jones, TJ Duckett, Edgerrin James]; 6) Super Bowl losers rarely make the playoffs the following season.

What's good: Matt Hasselbeck. Last season was an injury laden one for Matt Hasselbeck. This year he is healthy and has a brand new Pro Bowl receiver to throw to in T.J. Housmanzadeh.

What's bad: Mediocrity. Despite the fact that I am picking Seattle to do well, I still think they will be a very mediocre team. They will benefit more from being in a weak division than they actually will being a good football team.

What to watch: John Carlson. The Seahawks' tight end could bust out in a big way this year.

2. Arizona Cardinals -- 9-7

The Cards shocked the world by making it to the Super Bowl last season and ALMOST upsetting the Steelers.

What's good: Wide Receivers. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston all had 1000 yards receiving last year.

What's bad: History. Since 2000 only ONE team that has lost the Super Bowl has made the playoffs the next year, that being the Seattle Seahawks. I predict that something will happen to keep the Cards out. Someone will get hurt, the Madden curse will kick in on Fitz, somthing is going to happen.

What to watch: History. See "What's bad"

3. San Francisco 49ers -- 7-9

The 49ers made news last season by firing Mike Nolan and going with Mike Singletary as coach. Singletary is back this year and is looking to turn things around.

What's good: Coaching. Singletary did well last year handling his quarterbacks and the seemingly whiney Vernon Davis. I'd look for San Fran to be decent in Singletary's first full year.

What's bad: Quarterback. Shaun Hill is going to be the starter. He's not good but he's better than former first overall pick Alex Smith.

What to watch: Michael Crabtree. Crabtree has been holding out during training camp because his cousin of all people told him to. Man up and get with the game Crabtree. You've got talent but you are not God's gift to the world. Why do wide receivers have to be such divas?

4. St. Louis Rams -- 4-12

How bad are the Rams? So bad that I almost forgot to include them in this preview?

What's good: Steven Jackson. He's the only weapon they have.

What's bad: Everything else.

What to watch: Second year players. Defensive end Chris Long disappointed his rookie season and WR Donnie Avery had flashes of greatness. How will they develop?

To summarize --

NFC North: Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions
NFC South: Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Bucs
NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Redskins
NFC West: Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams

Who's in: Packers, Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks, Vikings, Saints

Tune in next time for the AFC preview.

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