Ah, the NFL season is upon us. Tomorrow night marks the beginning of 2009 NFL season when the Steelers take on the Titans. I realized I have to finish my preview before they start playing games, so without further adieu, your 2009 AFC preview.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers -- 10-6
Last year's defending champs will get back to the playoffs in 2009, but I expect them to be a slightly weaker version of last year's team that won the Super Bowl thanks to Bernard Pollard (if you don't know who that is then Google him and you'll get what I mean).
What's good: Defense. Defense has been Pittsburgh's mantra for decades, dating back to the "Steel Curtain" defense of the '70s. They will be a strong unit again this season.
What's bad: Not much. The Steelers are one of those teams that are good everywhere, but not great anywhere, and when you have good guys everywhere you are likely to win a lot of games rather than having several stars and be weak at other positions.
What to watch: Limas Sweed. The Steelers lost WR Nate Washington to the Titans in free agency, so it will be up to Sweed to step up and fill the role of slot receiver.
2. Baltimore Ravens -- 10-6
I have the Ravens being just a hair worse than the Steelers similar to last season. To be quite honest I think they are probably the better team, but for some reason I just can't pick against Pittsburgh.
What's good: Defense. Just like the Steelers, the Ravens have a vaunted defense. But will they be as good after losing guru Rex Ryan to the Jets? Probably.
What's bad: Pass-catchers. Mike Clayton showed flashes of promise last year, but Derrick Mason and Todd Heap's better days are behind them.
What to watch: Joe Flacco. Will the rookie sensation of last season avoid a sophomore slump? I think so.
3. Cincinnati Bengals -- 6-10
The Bengals will be better than last year, but mediocre overall. Carson Palmer is supposedly healthy this year, which bodes well, but the defense is very shaky in my opinion.
What's good: Carson Palmer's elbow. He says he's 100%. Better hope he's right.
What's bad: Chad Ochocinco. I can't believe he officially changed his last name to a Spanish word that doesn't even translate to his jersey number "85". Ochocinco is a joke. A pretty good receiver, but a joke. Until he grows up he's never going to win anything.
What to watch: Cedric Benson. If Benson, a former number 4 overall draft pick can live up to his potential and provide a solid running game, the Bengals may come out of nowhere to surprise a lot of people.
4. Cleveland Browns -- 4-12
The Browns are a laughing stock right now. They can't make up their mind between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards developed butterfingers, and Jamal Lewis seems 100 years older than he reall is.
What's good: D'Qwell Jackson. His name is D'Qwell...without a "U"...and he's a stud.
What's bad: Defense, running back, receivers...almost everything.
What to watch: Brady Quinn. Coming out of college I said that Brady Quinn was the best QB prospect to come out in years. Better than anybody named Eli Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Campbell, Ryan or Flacco. He needs to step it up so I don't have to eat those words.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans -- 11-5
The Titans surprised everyone last year when they went 13-3. The defense dominated as did the running game. They'll be solid again this year in what may be the trickiest division in football to predict.
What's good: Running the football. Chris Johnson and LenDale White may be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL.
What's bad: QB. Kerry Collins is a game manager and hasn't started a 16 games since 2002. If something happens to him can Vince Young hold down the fort?
What to watch: Wideouts. Without a true number one receiver, who will step up? Someone has to. Tight Ends Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler can't catch everything.
2. Indianapolis Colts -- 10-6
The Colts make the playoffs every year. As long as Peyton Manning is under center you can't bet against them.
What's good: Peyton Manning. Self explanitory.
What's bad: Number 2 receiver. Not that Anthony Gonzalez is bad, it's just that after Reggie Wayne there's not much depth. Gonzalez has the potential to be a star, but I don't know if he'll reach it this season. With Marvin Harrison gone, who will be the slot receiver? Pierre Garcon? Ha.
What to watch: Shakeups. The Colts coaching staff looks very different than it did last year. How will it affect the team overall?
3. Houston Texans -- 8-8
Houston is the sexy pick to make the playoffs every year but always come up short. This year will be no different.
What's good: Young defensive studs. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are arguabley the two premiere players at their positions.
What's bad: QB health. Has Matt Schaub ever made it through a full season? No. Is Rex Grossman going to carry them if something happens to Schaub? No.
What to watch: Andre Johnson. Maybe the best receiver in football. He always puts on a show.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars -- 4-12
I don't like anything about Jacksonville. I don't think that Maurice Jones-Drew will be nearly as good without Fred Taylor around, I don't think that Tory Holt is the Tory Holt of old, and I don't think that David Garrard is really all that great.
What's good: RaShean Mathis. Very underrated at cornerback.
What's bad: Receivers not named Holt. Mike Walker-Sims is Jacksonville's number two guy. Or is it Sims-Walker? I can't remember. In fact, who cares?
What to watch: MJD. How will Jones-Drew adjust to being a feature back? I don't know, but like I said, I have my doubts.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots -- 13-3
The Pats went 11-5 WITHOUT Tom Brady last year. 13-3 is probably low-balling the Pats. But I could see them losing once to Miami, losing to Baltimore, and dropping a game that they won't need in the last week of the season to the playoff clingy Texans.
What's good: Wes Welker. He's one of my favorite players. Scrappy little receiver slot receiver that shares my name.
What's bad: Nothing.
What to watch: Age. The Patriots got a lot younger with the trades of Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymore and the the retirement of Teddy Bruschi. But they got older on offense when they added Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor.
2. Miami Dolphins -- 9-7
The Dolphins shocked the world last season with a 10 game turnaround from the previous year, tying an NFL record. This year people see Miami coming and their little Wildcat ploy from last year is now a league wide sensation. Better start working on those Statue of Liberty plays, Sparano.
What's good: Running. Be it out of the Wildcat or straight up the gut, the Dolphins are deep at running back with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs.
What's bad: Wide receivers. Ted Ginn Jr. has big play capability, but is very inconsistent. The rest of the group are a bunch of a slot receivers.
What to watch: Chad Pennington. When's the last time Chad Pennington put together back to back solid seasons? Oh, that's right, never. He has to be good if the Dolphins want to make it back to the playoffs.
3. Buffalo Bills -- 6-10
I had no idea whether to put the Bills or the Jets here, but decided to go with the team not starting a rookie quarterback.
What's good: Playmakers at receiver. Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, Roscoe Parrish, Josh Reed, James Hardy. That's depth.
What's bad: Trent Edwards. I'm just not a believer.
What to watch: Team Obliterator. Will TO blow up the Bills like he did the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys?
4. New York Jets -- 6-10
Rex Ryan will have the defense ready to go. Question is, can they score enoug points? I see the Jets losing a lot of games 16-13.
What's good: Defense. Imported from Baltimore, head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guru. He brought his stud linebacker Bart Scott with him.
What's bad: Receivers. I'm sure you're getting tired of me harping on the lack of receiving depth that haunts many teams, but there is not one guy on the Jets receiving corps who you can count on game in and game out to make plays.
What to watch: Mark Sanchez. I like what I've seen from the rookie from USC. Not sure if he'll have a Matt Ryan-like season, but he'll be pretty good.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers -- 12-4
At first I marked the Chargers down for 14 wins, but then looked at their schedule. They have tough games against Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, the Giants, Philadelphia, and Dallas. I can see them losing 3 of those AFC games and one of those NFC games.
What's good: Philip Rivers. Is he ready to make a jump into Brady/Manning status? I think so.
What's bad: Not much. The Bolts are good EVERYWHERE.
What to watch: Ladainian Tomlinson. Will he bounce back from a disappointing, injury-plagued 2008 season?
2. Denver Broncos -- 5-11
The rest of this division is a mystery. I had no idea who to put here.
What's good: Knowshon Moreno. There isn't much to root about in Denver, but the rookie from Georgia has huge upside.
What's bad: Quarterback. Kyle Orton stinks. Chris Simms is hurt. I don't even know who the third guy is.
What to watch: Josh McDaniels. The rookie head coach of the Broncos seems to have already lost control of his team. I don't think he'll get it back.
3. Kansas City Chiefs -- 4-12
The Chiefs have the potential to be better than Denver. There were just too many question marks for me to give them the nod.
What's good: Dwayne Bowe. Just think if Bowe played for, say, Miami or Philadelphia.
What's bad: Defense. The Chiefs defense is bad. I can name maybe 4 starters. Glen Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Tamba Hali, and um...okay, maybe 3 starters.
What to watch: Matt Cassel. Cassel had a coming out party after Brady went down with that knee injury. But with that group of New England receivers and that New England offensive line I could have quarterbacked the Patriots.
4. Oakland Raiders -- 2-14
Yes, the Raiders might be the NFL's worst team. Jamarcus Russel is terrible, just like I said he'd be when he was taken number one overall two years ago, and the team is being run by the oldest man alive.
What's good: Nnamdi Asomugha. Maybe the NFL's best corner.
What's bad: Everything else. Maybe McFadden will be good, but who is going to block for him?
What to watch: Darius Heyward-Bay. I am still puzzled that the Raiders chose DHB at #7 in April's draft. What were they thinking? It'll be interesting to see just how good he is.
So to summarize
AFC North -- Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns
AFC South -- Titans, Colts, Texans, Jaguars
AFC East -- Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
AFC West -- Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders
Who's in -- Steelers, Titans, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens, Colts
So how will the playoffs play out? Like this....
NFC
1. Eagles
2. Falcons
3. Packers
4. Seahawks
5. Vikings
6. Saints
Wild Card: Packers over Saints; Vikings over Seahawks
Division: Vikings over Eagles; Packers over Falcons
Championship: Packers over Vikings
AFC
1. Patriots
2. Chargers
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Ravens
6. Colts
Wild Card: Steelers over Colts; Ravens over Titans
Division: Ravens over Patriots; Chargers over Steelers
Championship: Chargers over Ravens
Super Bowl XLIV: Chargers over Packers
Okay so call me a homer, but I can honestly see Green Bay coming out of the NFC. Everyone in the conference is mediocre. I picked them because I could only think of good reasons to pick AGAINST everyone else. The Saints don't play defense. Matt Ryan isn't going to the Super Bowl in his second year. Brett Favre will never last through the playoffs. So I'm going with the Packers. The Chargers are a gut feeling. At the end of the day though, the Chargers are the more well rounded team. The Chargers will win Super Bowl XLIV.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
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